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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

The Economist on Rogoff comments about inflation

And indeed, he's right. Not only would inflation reduce the value of
non-indexed debts, it would also help housing markets clear and prices
stabilise, and it would encourage households and financial institutions
to stop sitting on their money. As Mr Rogoff mentions, we're also on
the way to adopting the necessary policies—benchmark interest rates are
moving toward zero, fiscal stimulus is in the cards, and the Federal
Reserve is buying securities. As Mr Rogoff also mentions, the fact that
all these actions have barely held off deflation, so far, suggests that
a much more aggressive approach may be necessary.

There is a risk
to such a policy, namely, that inflation will get out of hand,
requiring a painful disinflationary recession at some point in the
future. But frankly, at this point, the odds of inflation getting out
of hand look slim, and the prospect of a disinflationary recession at
some date in the future, non-threatening.

Still, I would wager
that conditions would have to worsen significantly for Ben Bernanke to
make the kind of commitment Mr Rogoff recommends. Helicopter Ben has,
as yet, seemed reluctant to pull out all the available stops.



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