Predictions for 2009 Stephen Roach

Foreign Policy: A Lethal Shakeout

But don’t count on a vigorous (V-shaped) rebound from the post-bubble global recession of 2009. With no other major consumer likely to step up and fill the void left by the United States, a lopsided, bubble-distorted world will experience an anemic recovery at best. It will be a long time before global growth returns to the nearly 5 percent rate of the four and a half years that ended in mid-2007. Post-bubble shakeouts are lethal for any individual economy—to say nothing for the world as a whole.

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